Polls. They seem to matter to people. They certainly get their fair share of attention in the media and politicians salivate over them like a TV executive looking at ratings.
I have always said that polls are polls of people who agree to take a poll. This is true. You have to agree to do it in order to be counted at all. But take Gallup’s recent Presidential Tracking Poll – they do a three day rolling average pretty much non-stop. The media only tends to report big swings or tension building results – tension sells after all. Right now Ben Smith over at Politico has a short entry on his blog about how Obama is now at 46% approval. Now Ben’s a good guy and does his job well, although I wonder if he looked at the Gallup breakdown. If he had he would see a trend that I think points to where this country is heading.
18-29 Year Olds approve of the job President Obama is doing by 61%.
Think about that.
And think about those same voters in 2012, 2016…61% is not small and these folks do not stay 18-29 forever. They get older and as they do they are more and more likely to show up at the real polls – the voting booth – on election day.
30 to 49 year olds – my block – approve at 49%. I wonder why my block has a 20 year span and 18-29 is just an eleven year….I’d love to see the breakdown between 30 and 39…I have a feeling we’re not far below the 61%. In fact if anyone has an answer to this please email me or leave a comment below.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. We are in a generational shift in this country not a political one. Politics, as practiced currently, is a marketing game. The true differences between the parties are small – otherwise we would have had more than one Civil War. It simply boils down to how to pay for things and what should be private and what should be public. We are made to think we are different for the sake of easy politics. It’s no different than two fans of opposing Baseball teams – you may think they hate each other but they still both love the same game, Baseball.
Now what is dragging Obama’s numbers down? Those over 50. The demo 50-64 has him at 46%.
What’s fascinating is Gallup has an article up – you have to work to find it – about how President Obama is doing much better with the younger block of voters than either President George W. Bush or President Bill Clinton.
Clinton managed to get 57% approval from young voters and Bush only 46%.
Long story short – President Obama is doing just fine. Now Congress on the other hand…